US President Donald Trump has shot himself in the foot by announcing reciprocal tariff. The US will suffer the most from the reciprocal tariff. This has increased the risk of the US economy going into recession. The US economy going into recession can put not only the US but the entire world in great trouble. David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes that the US may go into recession by the end of 2025. Rosenberg has a vast understanding of the global economy. He has been the chief economist of Merrill Lynch.
The US economy is already under pressure
There were already signs of pressure on the American economy. A month ago, Rosenberg had said that America's growth could be less than one percent this year. This danger has increased further after Trump's announcement of reciprocal tariff on April 2. A country's GDP declining for two consecutive quarters means that it has gone into recession. Other experts also believe that reciprocal tariff will have a very bad effect on the American economy. The reason for this is that other countries will also announce retaliatory tariffs on America. This will have a very bad effect on global trade. It will be negative for the entire world.
Stock markets may be heading into a long bear phase
Rosenberg believes that if there is a big drop in global trade, it will reduce the growth of many countries. He said that if this happens, the chances of stock markets going into a bear phase will increase. However, Trump's reciprocal tariff will give America billions of dollars in the form of import duty. But experts say that this will increase inflation in America again. India's GDP is about 27 lakh crore (trillion) dollars. This is about 7 times that of India.
Also read: Trump Tariff : Trump finally imposed tariff on India, know the companies which will be most affected
It can have an impact on the growth of the whole world
Experts say that the US economy is so big that if it goes into recession, it will mean that the crisis will increase for the other economies of the world as well. Many countries of the world, including China, export a lot of goods to America. America imports most of the things of basic needs. If America goes into recession, then consumer demand will decrease. This will have a direct impact on the countries exporting to America. The good thing is that India is not included in such countries. Domestic demand has a higher share in India's GDP.
